Integrating Causal Discovery and Clinically-Relevant Insights to Explore Directional Relationships Between Autistic Features, Sex at Birth, and Cognitive Abilities

Prevalence in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis has long been strongly male-biased. Yet, consensus has not been reached on mechanisms and clinical features that underlie sex-based discrepancies. Whereas females may be under-diagnosed because of inconsistencies in diagnostic/ascertainment procedures (sex-biased criteria, social camouflaging), diagnosed males may have exhibited more overt behaviors (e.g., hyperactivity, aggression) that prompted clinical evaluation. Applying a novel network-theory-based approach, we extracted data-driven, clinically-relevant insights from a large, well-characterized sample (Simons Simplex Collection) of 2175 autistic males (Ages = 8.9±3.5 years) and 334 autistic females (Ages = 9.2±3.7 years). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and expert clinical review reduced data dimensionality to 15 factors of interest. To offset inherent confounds of an imbalanced sample, we identified a subset of males (N=331) matched to females on key variables (Age, IQ) and applied data-driven CDA using Greedy Fast Causal Inference (GFCI) for three groups (All Females, All Males, and Matched Males). Structural equation modeling (SEM) extracted measures of model fit and effect sizes for causal relationships between sex, age, and, IQ on EFA-selected factors capturing phenotypic representations of autism across sensory, social, and restricted and repetitive behavior domains. Our methodology unveiled sex-specific directional relationships to inform developmental outcomes and targeted interventions. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement SF was supported by T32-MH115866 and ZIAMH002955. AT was supported by SFARI awards 1036736 and 534028. ER was supported by T32-MH115866, TL1R002493, and UL1TR002494. EK and SM were supported by UL1TR002494. SJ was supported by SFARI awards 1036736 and 534028, RO1 MH115046 ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The Human Research Protection Program (HRPP) and Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the University of Minnesota waived ethical approval for this work. The IRB determined that this study met criteria for exemption from IRB review. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Approved researchers can obtain the Simon Simplex Collection (SSC) dataset described in this study (v15) by applying at .