Modeling the Refractive Index Profile N(z) of Polar Ice for Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Experiments

We have developed an in-situ index of refraction profile n(z) for cold polar ice, using the transit times of radio signals broadcast from an englacial transmitter to 2-5 km distant radio-frequency receivers, deployed at depths up to 200 m. For propagation through a non-uniform medium, Maxwell's equations generally admit two ray propagation solutions from a given transmitter, corresponding to a direct path (D) and a refracted or reflected path (R); the measured D vs. R timing differences (dt(D,R)) are determined by the refractive index profile. We constrain n(z) near South Pole, where the Askaryan Radio Array (ARA) neutrino observatory is located, by simulating D and R ray paths via ray tracing and comparing simulations to measured dt(D,R) values. Using previous ice density data as a proxy for n(z), we demonstrate that our data strongly favors a glaciologically-motivated three-phase densification model rather than a single exponential scale height model. Effective volume simulations for a detector of ARA station antenna depths yield a 14% increase in neutrino sensitivity over a range of 10^17 - 10^21 eV using the three-phase model compared to a single exponential.