Residential Mobility Amongst Children and Young People in Wales: A Longitudinal Study Using Linked Administrative Records

Background Child poverty remains a major global concern and a child's experience of deprivation is heavily shaped by where they live and the stability of their local neighbourhood. This study examines frequencies and patterns of residential mobility in children and young people (CYP) at a population level using novel geospatial techniques to assess how often their physical environment changes and to identify geographical variations in social mobility. Methods We used routinely collected administrative records held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank for CYP aged under 18 years living in Wales between 2012 and 2022. We calculated the Moran's I statistic to assess the magnitude of Lower layer Super Output Area (LSOA)-level geographic variation in residential mobility and used the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) to identify clusters of LSOAs where there are higher rates of residential mobility. Results This study included 923,531 CYP, with 58% having moved at least once during the study period. A total number of 1,209,102 house moves were recorded, 59% of which occurred between the ages of 0 and 5 years. Almost 10% of the cohort resided in five or more dwellings before the age of 18 years. In terms of area-level (LSOA) deprivation, 75% of house moves were to areas with the same or higher levels of deprivation, leaving only 25% of house moves that achieved upward social mobility. Clustering of residential mobility was identified predominantly in areas of high deprivation. Conclusion The findings of this study show that residential mobility is linked with socio-economic circumstances and is experienced by over half of CYP in Wales. Understanding where CYP live, their mobility patterns and which areas have high levels of influx and efflux is crucial for policymakers to generate well-informed, targeted and effective child-focused interventions.